Cyclone Feed

How are hurricanes forecast?

Hurricane forecasting relies heavily on computer models. There are many different hurricane forecasts available that are based on different mathematical equations. Because of this, the hurricane track and intensity forecasts will differ. You have to know which model hurricane forecasting is performing the best.

Hurricane forecasts are also dependent on available observational data. Unfortunately, in the tropics, data is scarce. Sometimes a hurricane or tropical storm will weaken or strengthen when it is not expected to do so. This can sometimes be attributed to the lack available data for forecasting models to reach a solution. The forecasts can only be as accurate as the data permit.

Nor is it advisable to go to a forecast model that deviates significantly from previous forecasts. Watch for trends in the field provided. Also, do not focus in the predicted path of many days in the future. The farther in time, the higher the average forecast error. Any predictions based on a correct track a week or more in the future will require a lot of luck.

The forecasts of hurricane intensity are less obvious than forecasts tracking hurricanes. Sometimes hurricanes deepen or strengthen rapidly. This process is not well understood yet, but probably occurs when a combination features of synoptic and meso-scale both favor an increase in strength. This rapid deepening usually occurs in the deep tropics, where the Wind shear is low and output high in the atmosphere is very strong.

Similarly, a tropical cyclone may weaken very quickly. There are two main reasons for this. The first is wind shear. When a tropical storm or hurricane is approaching at high altitude winds can break the movement. The low-level winds in the tropics are generally from the east. At higher altitudes, especially in the higher latitudes, the winds in the upper troposphere generally from the west. This is the cutting action that can quickly weaken a tropical cyclone. Another mechanism that causes tropical cyclones to weaken the air is dry. Usually, the air is humid enough at low levels in the deep tropics to allow the development of tropical cyclones. Sometimes, dry air in the middle levels of the atmosphere is ingested into the circulation that impairs the ability of tropical storm or hurricane to produce the energy that feeds – moist, unstable air.

Good hurricane forecasters know how to interpret all the tools at your disposal. This includes visible, infer red and water vapor satellite imagery. It is essential to correctly analyze wind flow patterns at low, medium, and high levels of the troposphere. Satellite derived winds are also useful. buoys data, ship reports, radar imagery and Hurricane Hunter information are also extremely important to interpret correctly.

In recent years the media has obtained hurricane forecast information without meteorologists trained in proper interpretation. This has led to the improper dissemination of public information. The most important aspect of hurricane forecasting is experience. Nothing can replace experience acquired after many years studying the eccentricities of hurricanes.

In short, hurricane forecasters should have experience and knowledge how to properly use the tools available to them. The forecast is also an art. A top hurricane expert, well you must know to assimilate the intangibles.

About the Author

Rich Johnson – Rich is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist with 25 years of weather forecasting and television experience. His expertise is in tropical meteorology forecasting hurricanes. His website TropicalWeather.net is dedicated to helping travelers cope with tropical weather.

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